TTL Edition: #74: We Pick ‘Em, You Win ‘Em
Diamond & Ice Plays, Triple Play Thursday Parlay, Happy BDay CP3, & “The Catfish & The Codfish”
Wednesday Recap:
TTL Pod Picks (3-4) (-0.63u):
NBA: Suns -1 L, Grizzlies -3 W
MLB: Orioles F5 ML W, Red Sox -1.5 L, Padres -1.5 W
Wednesday Warrior: Knicks +3.5 L
Moneyline Dice Roll: Oakland Athletics -1.5 L (2-2 OVR Pod Record)
Thanks for scrolling through Edition #74 of the TTL Newsletter! We appreciate you stopping by and helping us bankrupt these sportsbooks one play at a time! Today’s edition has 2 NHL picks and 1 MLB Pick. Of course we also have the Triple Play Thursday Parlay locked and loaded. We have an early MLB slate on tap today, so make sure you hammer these picks in ASAP. Don’t miss out on running them to the window! Be sure to check out RMag’s Sidebar for a happy birthday to Chris Paul with the best plays from his early career, and Colt’s Corner for a story he’s told on the pod but with some extra perspective this time. Let’s get this party started and load our wallets just in time for the weekend. It’s a beautiful day to place a few bets! Let’s cash some tickets!
TTL Picks
Milwaukee Brewers F5 ML (-128) vs Philadelphia Phillies (12:05pm CST)
To get the day off and running, we are taking some first five innings action on the east coast. The biggest key that stands out to us in this game is the pitching matchup of Brandon Woodruff vs Zack Wheeler. The Phillies’ Wheeler has been no scrub this season, however he has been nothing compared to the excellence that Woodruff has exhibited. He is sporting a 1.80 ERA in 2021, and over the last five he has pitched at least six innings, allowing 1 or less in four of those starts, the lone outlier was a 2 ER outing against the Dodgers. On top of his dominance in 2021, Woodruff has been a thorn in the side of the Phillies top hitters for a few years now. Harper, Herrera, Hoskins, McCutchen, and Realmuto are a combined 1-33 lifetime vs Woodruff. The Brewers offense has been average over the last week, but if Woodruff’s dominance over the Phils continues, we should only need one or two to get this job done. Give us all of that action. TTL Pick: Milwaukee Brewers F5 ML (-122)
NY Rangers vs Boston Bruins -1.5 (6:00pm CST)
The Rangers have all but completely given up on the season, and the Bruins are still fighting for playoff positioning in the East Division. The Rangers are coming off yesterday’s game that started with a fight, and will be tired coming into this game after two straight battles with the Caps. Not including last night’s game, the Rangers have lost their last 3 games straight up by 3, 3, and 4 goals. The Bruins have won 4 out of their last 5, and have outscored their opponents in those matchups by 3 goals or more. The Bruins are also coming in on 1 day’s rest after losing to the Devils, and will be in perfect form to handle this tired Rangers squad with ease. These two teams have met 6 times in 2021, with the Bruins leading the series 4-2 and winning by an average of 2.25 goals. Take the Bruins to win by at least 2 goals tonight. TTL Pick: Boston Bruins -1.5
Vancouver Canucks vs Edmonton Oilers -1.5 (8:00pm CST)
The Edmonton Oilers have clinched their playoff spot in the North, and simply put are the team playing with a purpose in the matchup. Vancouver is ready to be done with this season, and as evidence they have lost their last 6 games in-a-row. The Canucks have lost those matchups by an average margin of 2.67 goals, and have only scored 1 goal in 4 games over this stretch. Edmonton on the other hand is heating up just in time for the playoffs. The Oilers have won 5 out of their last 6 games, and have also won those matchups by an average of 3 goals. The Canucks and Oilers have met 7 times this year, with the most recent meetings coming on Monday and Tuesday. The Oilers took both matchups, 4-1 & 5-3, and are now 5-2 SU in the season series against the Canucks. The Oilers have won those 5 matchups by an average of 2.4 goals, and have only won by a single goal once. The Canucks are too beat up and checked out of this season to give any sort of a fight to the Oilers. Look for the Oilers to score early and often, and take this matchup with ease. TTL Pick: Edmonton Oilers -1.5
Special Play Of The Day: Triple Play Parlay
Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox -1.5 (12:10pm CST)
Let’s get this afternoon parlay rocking with some action on the American League’s top scoring offense, up against the AL’s worst scoring offense. Detroit remains the only team in the AL to crack 100 runs scored on the season, and they struggle to get the bats going against both righties and lefties. They will face a righty in Eovaldi who has been solid in his own right this season, and he will oppose Spencer Turnbull who rolls in with a 4.50 ERA. This Red Sox offense is elevated at home, and also in day games. Boston’s offense can get it done at anytime of day, but their batting splits in day games are noticeably higher. In day games, their batting average is 22 points higher, OBP is 34 points higher, and their OPS is 47 points higher. The opposite can be said for Detroit, who’s offense drops off on the road and in day games. Give us the Red Sox to put the hammer down.
Cleveland Indians vs Royals F5 ML (-134) (1:10pm CST)
The second leg of the parlay features an AL Central matchup with a pitching matchup of Triston McKenzie and Danny Duffy. The most important key for us in this one is that lefty Danny Duffy is performing at the highest level of his career, mixed with the Indians being an absolute dumpster fire against left-handed pitching. Over five starts, Duffy is 4-1 with a 0.60 ERA, having not allowed more than 1 ER in any start, and only allowing 1 ER in the first five innings of his starts. Mix that with a sub .200 BA and sub .300 OBP for the Indians and you’ve got a whale of a matchup. To drive it home a little further McKenzie has been very inconsistent for the Tribe, only managing to complete 5 innings of work once over five starts. McKenzie rolls in with a 6.27 ERA, and a 1.71 WHIP. Give us Duffy to lock things down, and the Royals to squeeze out at least a couple runs on McKenzie.
Atlanta Braves vs Nationals F5 ML (-112) (3:05pm CST)
The 3rd leg for today is another game that comes down to the pitching matchup. Drew Smyly is taking the mound for the Braves and John Lester for the Nationals. Lester was dominant in his 1st start of the season on 4/30, going 5 innings with 5 H, 1 K, 2 BB, and 0 ER. Lester will do much of the same against this Braves offense that averages .172 BA, .239 OBP, and 3.38 R/9 against lefties. Drew Smyly has not been dependable at all this season, and in 4 starts he’s pitched 19 innings with 22 H, 18 K, 7 BB, 9 HR, and 17 ER. Smyly has given up 5 runs in each of his last 3 outings, and the Nats will capitalize on this opportunity after dropping 3 straight to these Braves. Washington is also one of the toughest teams in the MLB for lefties to face, as the Nats average .297 BA, .382 OBP, and 6 R/9 against left handed pitching. The Nats were intriguing on the full game ML, but we didn’t want to chance it with their bullpen. That being said, the Nats will more than handle business in the F5 innings.
Triple Play Parlay: Red Sox -1.5, Royals F5 ML, Nationals F5 ML Total Odds: +575
RMag’s Sidebar
Chris Paul will be celebrating his 36th birthday today, and I decided to show the man some love. In his first season with the Phoenix Suns, Paul has helped elevate them to a championship contending squad, and will most likely get some MVP looks. CP3 will go down as one of the greatest point guards to ever do it, but in my opinion he doesn’t get and probably won’t get the respect he deserves. A great deal of that is because of his playoff resume, or lack thereof, but nonetheless, Paul has performed at the highest level from the moment he stepped into the league. Enjoy some of the best plays of the first half of his career.
Colt’s Inspiration Corner
“The Catfish and the Codfish”
I’ve told this story once before on the podcast, but I wanted to share it in a Corner and provide some additional perspective. If you haven’t heard the story before, I hope you enjoy it. As you may well know, cod is one of the most popular fish to eat in the United States and the demand for a good quality product is high across the map. In the Northeastern United States there’s an extremely large market for commercial cod fishing, and they are the main suppliers of our nation’s cod. When the fishermen first began to ship cod across the United States they ran into a few problems, but were ultimately able to find a solution. The solution can apply directly to your life, and will help you to overcome the challenges & adversity you face.
The first method the fishermen tried was catching the cod, breaking it down, freezing it, and then sending it out for shipment. However, this method caused the cod to lose its traditional flavor and become extremely bland. The fishermen then had the idea to ship the cod alive in specially designed live wells for shipping trucks. To no avail, the cod now arrived at their delivery locations not only flavorless but also soft & mushy. After many failed attempts the fishermen finally came up with a brilliant plan. The fishermen determined that if they could keep the codfish constantly moving and active throughout its journey, it would arrive at its destination fresh and as if the fish never left its original habitat. In order to achieve this goal, the fishermen utilized the same live wells but this time they added in a few of the codfish’s natural enemy, the catfish. These catfish would chase the codfish around the live wells for the entire trip, and when they arrived at their destination the goal had been achieved. The codfish arrived fresh, healthy, and even better than when they were originally caught due to their constant swimming around the wells.
Why am I telling you a story about shipping fish, and how does it apply to your life? I’m glad you asked, because those ornery catfish are quite similar to the challenges and adversities that you face in your life. The trials that you face are there to keep you fresh, learning, and achieving. Without them, your life would be dull, bland, and flavorless. The first step in becoming successful, is knowing that the only option you have is to overcome your challenges. Much like the codfish, you have to keep moving no matter how big the challenges you’re currently facing are. Without adversity, you would never have the opportunity to find the true version of yourself and grow into the person you were meant to be.
Daily Challenge: Today’s phrase of the day is, “The Catfish & The Codfish”. Use this phrase to remember why challenges and adversity are an essential part of your life. Choose to rise to the occasion, and don’t cower to the circumstance when adversity strikes your life. You can’t avoid it, so you might as well start overcoming it. Make the decision to embrace adversity, and watch your life grow in ways you never imagined. You will never face a challenge in this life that you weren’t made to handle, you just have to make the choice to believe that fact. Have a spectacular Thursday my friend.